Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that divided the nation and caused turmoil, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the political, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there might be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the absence of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in universities but scarcely any government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Each writes two articles that aim for impartiality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and social data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass identity markers, duties, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they support unity but refuse increased taxation or introducing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his generation is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a negligent government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate points, he said. "One side will win here and the other side will in the end lose but each side has has valuable insights to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to join the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
